The First $1 Trillion Holiday: How to Spend Less Than the 'Average' American

October 22, 2026

The $1 trillion holiday: woman climbing a staircase of gift boxes under a coin moon

The National Retail Federation expects US holiday sales to grow 4.2% this year to $1.013 trillion, the first holiday season ever to cross the trillion-dollar line. Headlines will call it a sign of a strong consumer. But a record total says very little about whether your household can afford it, and comparing yourself to the "average shopper" is one of the quickest ways to overspend.

$1.013T

NRF 2026 holiday sales forecast

+4.2%

growth on last year

~50%

of US consumer spending comes from the top 10% of earners

Why "average" is the wrong benchmark

Recent economic data suggests that the top 10% of earners account for roughly half of all US consumer spending. Economists call it a K-shaped economy: higher-income households keep spending while everyone else absorbs higher prices for groceries, fuel and gifts. So when you read that the average shopper plans to spend a certain amount, that figure is pulled upward by people with very different budgets from yours.

Last year's NRF survey put planned spending at about $890 per person: roughly $628 on gifts and $263 on food, decorations and cards. Treat numbers like this as a ceiling to question, never as a target to match.

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What's different this year

Fuel. Gasoline drove more than half of September's 0.6% jump in consumer prices, which means less room in the budget before a single gift is bought.
Tariffs. Toys, electronics and decor are among the categories most exposed to import costs.
Debt. Americans already owe $1.26 trillion on credit cards. Our holiday debt firewall shows how to keep it from growing.
An earlier season. Deals now start in October, stretching the period in which you're tempted to spend.

Set your own number in 3 steps

Start with cash you have. What can you spend from savings and the next two paychecks without borrowing?

Subtract the non-gifts. Food, travel, hosting, cards and wrapping often eat a third of the total.

Divide what's left by people, starting with those who matter most. The rest get a card, a homemade gift, or a kind message.

Want a step-by-step version? Read how much should I spend on Christmas?

Once you have your number, turn it into a weekly Christmas budget set-aside for the seven weeks to Christmas Eve.

A number only works if you can see it

Most holiday overspending isn't one big purchase. It's 30 small ones spread over eight weeks, across three cards and four apps, none of which tell you the total.

The Calm Christmas Money Kit brings three digital tools together: the Holiday Spending Planner for your list and number, the Money Dashboard spreadsheet that tracks every purchase against it, and a No-Spend Challenge for January, so the season has a beginning, a middle and a calm end.

The hardest part isn't maths

Guilt, comparison and wanting the holidays to feel "enough" for everyone are what really drive the bill up. We look at why in why we overspend at Christmas. If you need to tell family you're scaling back, our scripts for cutting back on gifts make the conversation easier. And for a gentler approach to the whole season, try a low-buy holiday.

Quick questions

How much will Americans spend on the 2026 holidays? The NRF forecasts holiday sales of about $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% on last year.

How much does the average person spend on Christmas? Last year's NRF survey projected about $890 per person, but averages are pulled up by high earners, so set your own number from your own cash.

Is it too late to start a Christmas fund? For this year, divide what you can save by the paychecks left. For next year, see how to start a Christmas fund for 2027.

Sources