The Bank of England announces its next interest rate decision at 12 noon on Thursday 5 November 2026, and most economists expect Bank Rate to rise from 3.75% to 4% – the first increase since rates peaked at 5.25%. For a £200,000 tracker mortgage over 25 years, a 0.25-point rise adds about £29 a month; on a standard variable rate it is closer to £33. Fixed-rate borrowers see no change until their deal ends.
A Reuters poll of 63 economists, taken 12–14 October, found 54 expecting a rise to 4%. That was before September's inflation figure came in at 3.5% – up from 3.1% in August and further above the Bank's 2% target. Here is who is affected, by how much, and what you can do in the week before the announcement.
Why the Bank is expected to raise rates now
At its last meeting on 17 September, the Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% for the sixth meeting in a row – but three of the nine members voted for a rise. Since then, the Office for National Statistics reported that CPI inflation jumped to 3.5% in September, with CPIH at 3.6% and RPI at 3.9%, driven heavily by motor fuel.
According to HomeOwners Alliance's summary of forecasts, markets are pricing about four quarter-point rises by mid-2027. Capital Economics and Oxford Economics each expect rises in November and February, taking Bank Rate to 4.25%. The later MPC dates to watch are 17 December 2026, 4 February 2027 and 18 March 2027.
For what September's prices already cost a typical home, see UK Inflation 3.5%: What September’s Jump Costs Your Household.
Does a 4% Bank Rate affect you? The decision table
| If you have… | What changes | When |
|---|---|---|
| A tracker mortgage | Rate usually rises by the full 0.25 points | Often from the next payment or within a month – check your terms |
| A standard variable rate (SVR) | Lender decides; most have passed past rises on | Usually announced within days; lenders must give notice |
| A fixed-rate mortgage | Nothing during your fixed term | When your deal ends, new fixes reflect higher expected rates |
| A fix ending in the next 6 months | Deals may be repriced quickly around the decision | Many lenders let you secure a deal up to 6 months ahead |
| Easy-access savings | Rate may rise – but banks are slower to pass on rises to savers | Weeks, if at all |
| Credit card or overdraft | Little direct change; rates are already far above Bank Rate | – |
| Renting | No direct change; landlords with tracker loans may feel squeezed | At your next rent review |
Our earlier explainer UK Mortgage Rates October 2026: What 5.93% Fixes Cost You covers the remortgage side in detail.
What 0.25 points costs, calculated
Below are our calculations for repayment mortgages with 25 years remaining. The tracker example assumes a rate of Bank Rate plus 1% (4.75% now, 5.00% after). The SVR example assumes 7.50% rising to 7.75%. These are illustrative examples – your own rate is on your mortgage statement or app.
| Balance | Tracker now → after | Extra a month | SVR now → after | Extra a month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| £100,000 | £570 → £585 | +£14 | £739 → £755 | +£16 |
| £150,000 | £855 → £877 | +£22 | £1,108 → £1,133 | +£25 |
| £200,000 | £1,140 → £1,169 | +£29 | £1,478 → £1,511 | +£33 |
| £250,000 | £1,425 → £1,461 | +£36 | £1,847 → £1,888 | +£41 |
| £300,000 | £1,710 → £1,754 | +£43 | £2,217 → £2,266 | +£49 |
Our calculations, rounded. Repayment basis, 25-year remaining term.
Look at the gap between the two columns, not just the rise. On £200,000, someone sitting on an SVR is paying around £338 a month more than a borrower on a tracker at 4.75% – before November's change. That is more than £4,000 a year that often goes unnoticed simply because a fixed deal ended and nobody switched.
A quarter-point rise is £29 a month on a £200,000 tracker. Drifting onto an SVR can cost more than ten times that.
This is the point where rate news stops being abstract. The rise itself is small; what hurts is when it lands in a household where every bill already comes out on a different day, the buffer is gone and nobody quite knows which direct debit will tip the account into overdraft.
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See what's inside →Savers: what 4% could mean for you
In theory, a 0.25-point rise adds £25 a year in interest for every £10,000 saved – £12.50 on £5,000, £50 on £20,000. In practice, banks often pass on only part of a rise to existing accounts, so it is worth checking your rate in mid-November rather than assuming it moved.
If you hold or plan to open a cash ISA, the allowance changes coming in April 2027 matter more than this rise: our guide Cash ISA Limit 2027: £12,000 Cap, 161 Days to Use £20,000 explains the timeline.
Your five-step checklist before 5 November
- Find your mortgage type and end date. It is on your annual statement or lender app. Write the end date somewhere you will see it.
- If your fix ends within six months, ask about securing a new deal now. Many lenders and brokers allow this and let you switch to a cheaper deal if rates fall.
- If you are on an SVR, ask for a product transfer quote. This is often a short phone call with your existing lender.
- Re-check your monthly budget after the Autumn Budget changes – see Budget 2026: What It Means for You.
- If payments are already hard, speak to your lender early. Free, impartial help is available from MoneyHelper (0800 138 7777) and Citizens Advice.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates on 5 November 2026?
Nothing is certain until 12 noon on 5 November, but most economists in a mid-October Reuters poll (54 of 63) expected a rise from 3.75% to 4%, and September's 3.5% inflation figure strengthened that view.
How much will my mortgage go up if Bank Rate rises to 4%?
On a repayment tracker over 25 years, roughly £14–£15 a month per £100,000 borrowed; fixed-rate borrowers see no change until their deal ends.
Should I fix my mortgage before the Bank of England decision?
It depends on your circumstances; many lenders let you secure a deal up to six months ahead, which can protect you from rises. A regulated mortgage adviser or MoneyHelper can help you weigh it up.
Sources
- HomeOwners Alliance – Latest UK interest rate forecasts (updated 28 Oct 2026)
- Investment Week – Bank of England holds at 3.75% (17 Sept 2026)
- Office for National Statistics – Inflation and price indices
- Bank of England – Interest rates and Bank Rate
- Professional Pensions – UK inflation jumps higher than forecast to 3.5%
- MoneyHelper – Mortgages help and guidance
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Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.