US mortgage rates are back above 7% heading into the Federal Reserve's 8–9 December 2026 meeting. Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% on 5 November, and daily trackers jumped to around 7.30% after the hot October inflation report on 10 November, the same day Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he leans towards a December rate hike and would consider a half-point move. On a $350,000 loan, today's rate costs about $251 a month more than a year ago, and another half-point rise would add roughly $120 more.
What happened this week, in plain English
Three things landed within 48 hours. First, the October consumer price index on 10 November came in hotter than forecast (a 0.4% monthly rise against a 0.3% forecast). Second, Waller, one of the Fed's most closely watched governors, said in London that he leans towards a 0.25-point hike in December even if inflation improves, and that a 0.5-point hike should be considered if it ran hot. Markets were pricing in a better-than-80% chance of at least a quarter-point move. Third, mortgage pricing reacted right away: Mortgage News Daily's index rose 0.12 points in one day to 7.30%, and Zillow's lender average for a 30-year purchase loan was 7.09% on 11 November, up 11 basis points on the day.
The Fed's policy rate currently sits at 3.75%–4.00% after it held in October. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly. Fixed rates follow longer-term bond yields, which move on expectations, so much of a December hike may already be “priced in”. But adjustable-rate loans, HELOCs and credit cards are tied to the prime rate, and those move the day after a Fed decision.
The data story: your monthly payment at five rates
Below are principal-and-interest payments on a 30-year fixed loan (excluding taxes, insurance and PMI). We use three loan sizes and five rates: a year ago, Freddie Mac's latest weekly average, the latest daily reading, and two “what if” levels if rates rise another 0.25 or 0.50 points.
| Loan | 6.22% year ago |
7.18% Freddie Mac |
7.30% daily, 10 Nov |
7.55% +0.25 |
7.80% +0.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250,000 | $1,534 | $1,694 | $1,714 | $1,757 | $1,800 |
| $350,000 | $2,148 | $2,371 | $2,399 | $2,459 | $2,520 |
| $450,000 | $2,762 | $3,048 | $3,085 | $3,162 | $3,239 |
Standard amortisation formula, 360 monthly payments, rounded to the nearest dollar. Rates: Freddie Mac PMMS (5 Nov 2026 and a year earlier) and Mortgage News Daily index (10 Nov 2026); 7.55% and 7.80% are illustrative scenarios, not forecasts.
Lifetime interest on a $350,000 loan
The gap between last year's rate and a 7.80% rate on the same loan is $133,690 of extra interest over 30 years, or $372 a month. That is the number that turns a “we can afford this” house into a stretch.
A quarter-point move sounds tiny. On a $350,000 loan it's about $60 a month, which is $720 a year your household has to find somewhere else.
The income you'd need
Many lenders look at whether housing costs stay around 28% of gross income. For principal and interest alone on $350,000, that implies roughly $92,065 of household income at 6.22%, $102,836 at 7.30% and $107,981 at 7.80%. Add taxes and insurance and the bar is higher still.
If $60–$120 a month just appeared in your budget
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Who is actually affected?
| Your situation | Does a December hike change your payment? |
|---|---|
| Fixed-rate mortgage already locked | No. Your rate is fixed for the life of the loan. |
| Shopping for a home or under contract | Possibly. The rate you lock is the one that counts, and quotes move daily. |
| ARM resetting in 2027 | Likely. Check your index, margin and caps in your loan documents. |
| HELOC (variable, tied to prime) | Yes, usually within one billing cycle. On a $50,000 interest-only balance, +0.25 points is about $10.42 a month. |
| Hoping to refinance | The window has narrowed. Compare your current rate with live quotes, including closing costs. |
Five moves before 9 December
- Know your lock date. If you're under contract, ask your lender how long the lock lasts and what an extension costs.
- Get three Loan Estimates on the same day. Rates move daily, so quotes from different days aren't comparable. The CFPB's Loan Estimate tools help you compare like for like.
- Price the points. One discount point on $350,000 costs $3,500. Divide that by the monthly saving it buys to see how many months it takes to break even.
- Check your HELOC statement. Find your margin over prime and work out what +0.25 and +0.50 would mean for you.
- Build a one-month cushion equal to the gap between your payment now and the “+0.50” column above.
For the other side of a December hike, see what it means for card and loan balances in Fed Rate Hike December 2026: Your Debt, Calculated. The inflation numbers behind it are in October CPI 2026: 3 Households' Next Year, and if a balance is already building, read Household Debt Q3 2026: Your Card Interest in $. To see how next year's tax brackets change your take-home pay, go to 2027 Tax Brackets: 10 Salaries.
FAQ
Will mortgage rates go up if the Fed hikes in December?
Not automatically. Fixed mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields, which often move before the Fed acts. That's why rates already rose after the 10 November inflation data. Variable products tied to prime (HELOCs, many ARMs) do move after a hike.
Should I lock my mortgage rate now?
That depends on your closing date, your lender's lock terms and how much a rise would hurt your budget. Use the table above to put a dollar figure on the risk, then talk to your loan officer or a HUD-approved housing counselor.
What is the average 30-year mortgage rate right now?
Freddie Mac's weekly average was 7.18% on 5 November 2026, compared with 6.22% a year earlier. Daily indexes were around 7.09%–7.30% on 10–11 November. Freddie Mac publishes a new weekly figure every Thursday.
Sources
- Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 5 Nov 2026 – freddiemac.com/pmms
- Mortgage News Daily, Freddie Mac weekly survey and daily index, 10 Nov 2026 – mortgagenewsdaily.com
- Yahoo Finance, “Fed's Waller leans toward quarter-point rate hike in December, open to 50 basis points”, 10 Nov 2026 – finance.yahoo.com
- Yahoo Finance / Zillow, mortgage rates 12 Nov 2026 – finance.yahoo.com
- Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar – federalreserve.gov
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Buying a house tools – consumerfinance.gov
Feeling uneasy every time rates make the news? Start with the free 7-Day Money Anxiety Reset journal.
Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.