Brent crude oil jumped to about $116 a barrel on Friday, October 23, 2026 – its highest level since March and up from under $97 at the start of October. The US national average for regular gas was $4.29 a gallon that day, according to AAA, compared with $3.07 a year earlier. Fuel traders expect more increases at the pump, so here is what the jump could mean for your household budget over the next 12 months, in dollars.
Update, November 2, 2026: pump prices have since started to ease, with regular at $4.17 a gallon. We checked what the drop really saves you in Gas Prices Falling 2026: 7 myths about your savings.
What happened on October 23
On Friday, Brent crude climbed 2.7% to $116.24 a barrel as efforts to restart US–Iran talks stalled, the trade publication Transport Topics reported. Fortune's daily oil tracker put Brent at $116.03 early that morning: up 16.6% in a month and 75.7% from $66.05 a year ago.
At the pump, AAA's national average for regular was $4.2926 on October 23 – two cents higher than the day before, but still below the $4.47 of a month ago. That gap matters: pump prices usually follow crude with a delay, and analysts quoted by Transport Topics noted that retailer margins were already thin, which is why further increases were expected. Some Midwest state averages jumped by roughly 7 to 25 cents a gallon within a day, according to figures shared by OPIS analyst Tom Kloza on October 22.
This is a factual money story, not a forecast. Nobody can say where oil goes next. What you can do is put your own numbers on the table before the next jump lands.
Why oil moves your gas bill
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil made up about 51% of the retail price of regular gasoline in 2025. Taxes were about 17%, distribution and marketing about 18%, and refining about 14%. So when crude rises sharply, roughly half of your pump price is exposed.
A barrel holds 42 gallons. That gives a simple rule of thumb: every $1 rise in a barrel of crude adds roughly 2.4 cents to a gallon if it is fully passed on. Brent's rise of about $19 since early October works out at around 46 cents a gallon on paper – but pass-through is never perfect or instant, which is why we use three scenarios below instead of one prediction.
What makes up a gallon of regular gasoline, 2025 average. Source: EIA.
Three households, one year: what a rise could cost
These are illustrative examples, not real people. Each car averages 25 miles per gallon. We compared today's AAA price with a year ago, then added three possible increases: 10, 25 and 50 cents a gallon.
| Household (illustrative) | Miles / month | Gas / month now | Extra vs. a year ago (per year) | +10¢ (per year) | +25¢ (per year) | +50¢ (per year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maya – short commute, one car | 600 | $103 | $352 | $29 | $72 | $144 |
| Denise – suburban mom, school runs | 1,000 | $172 | $586 | $48 | $120 | $240 |
| Rosa – rural, long commute | 1,800 | $309 | $1,055 | $86 | $216 | $432 |
Calculated at $4.2926/gal (AAA, Oct 23, 2026) vs. $3.0713 a year earlier; 25 mpg. Rounded to the nearest dollar.
The surprising number is not the scenario column – it's the one before it. Even if prices stopped rising today, Rosa is already paying about $1,055 a year more than she did in October 2025, and Denise about $586. If prices rise another 25 cents, Denise's extra climbs to roughly $706 a year – close to $59 every month that has to come from somewhere.
Even if pump prices froze today, a 1,000-mile-a-month driver is already spending about $586 a year more than last October.
The tool for this moment
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See what's inside →Your 7-step plan before the next price jump
1. Find your real fuel number. Add up the last two months of gas station spending from your bank or card statements. Divide by two. That's your baseline – most people underestimate it.
2. Give fuel its own line. Move it out of 'miscellaneous' and into its own budget category, with 10% headroom (for Denise: about $190 instead of $172).
3. Combine trips. Batch errands into one loop per week. Cutting just 100 miles a month at 25 mpg saves 4 gallons – about $17 a month at today's average.
4. Check your tires and your load. Under-inflated tires and roof boxes cost fuel. These are free fixes.
5. Compare prices before you fill. Prices vary a lot within the same town. State averages on October 23 ranged from under $4 to over $5.60 a gallon (AAA).
6. Don't let fuel ride on a credit card balance. If you pay with a card for rewards, pay it in full. Gas carried at credit card interest gets much more expensive.
7. Protect the holidays. If you'll drive to family in November or December, add that trip to your fuel line now, not when you're already on the road.
If headlines about oil and conflict are making you anxious, it's okay to limit how often you check the news. Talking to someone you trust – or a professional – helps when worry feels heavy. For help with debt or budgeting, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has free, independent tools.
Frequently asked questions
Will gas prices go up because oil hit $116?
Possibly, but not one-for-one and not overnight. Crude is about half the pump price (EIA), and pump prices tend to lag crude. As a rule of thumb, a $1 rise per barrel adds about 2.4 cents a gallon if fully passed on.
How much is gas right now in the US?
AAA put the national average for regular at $4.29 a gallon on October 23, 2026, versus $3.07 a year earlier. Diesel averaged $6.32.
How much more am I paying for gas than last year?
Multiply the gallons you buy each month by about $1.22 (the difference between this year's and last year's AAA averages). A driver buying 40 gallons a month pays about $49 more per month – roughly $586 a year.
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Want a quick place to start? The free 7-Day Money Anxiety Reset journal takes 10 minutes a day.
Sources
Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.