The ONS publishes UK inflation for October 2026 on Wednesday 18 November at 7am. September's figure was 3.5%, up from 3.1%, and the Bank of England now expects inflation to climb to around 5% by the middle of 2027. For a household spending £2,600 a month on everyday costs, the gap between 3.5% and 5% is about £468 a year. Below: what to expect on 18 November, three households' year in pounds, and what to set up before the January bills.
The numbers here are UK-wide and come from the ONS, the Bank of England and Ofgem. Your own inflation rate depends on what you buy – a household that drives a lot will feel it more than one that doesn't.
What is in the October figure – and what isn't
September's jump was driven by transport. Motor fuel prices were 29.8% higher than a year earlier, petrol averaged 169.5p a litre and diesel 192.5p. Housing and household services inflation rose to 5.3% on the CPI measure. Food inflation, by contrast, held at 1.3%, and core inflation (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) was 2.8%.
October brings a new ingredient: Ofgem's price cap rose 4% on 1 October to £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit – up £60, or about £5 a month – with gas bills up around 8%. That will feed into the October number. One independent nowcast (Scanalytics, published as a draft) puts October at about 3.4%, while the Bank of England's own path points upwards into 2027. Treat any single forecast with caution: the official number is the one that counts.
| Date | What happens | Why it matters to your budget |
|---|---|---|
| 18 November, 7am | ONS publishes October CPI | Shows whether the 3.5% rise is slowing or speeding up |
| Late November | Ofgem announces the January–March 2027 price cap | Sets your energy unit rates from 1 January |
| 17 December | Next Bank of England rate decision | Mortgage and savings rates move on it |
| Early 2027 | Bank expects CPI around 4.5% in Q1 | Pressure on food, fuel and service costs |
| Mid-2027 | Bank expects a peak around 5% in Q2 | The point where your budget is most stretched |
Dates: ONS release calendar (GOV.UK), Bank of England Monetary Policy Summary, 5 November 2026. Ofgem's announcement date is based on its usual quarterly timetable.
Three households, one year: 3.5% versus 5%
These are illustrative examples, not real people. Each figure is the household's monthly spending on everyday costs that move with inflation – food, energy, fuel, insurance, subscriptions, clothes – but not a fixed-rate mortgage or rent that is set separately.
| Household (illustrative) | Monthly everyday spending | Extra per month at 3.5% | Extra per month at 5% | Extra per year at 5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie, 29, renting alone in Leeds | £1,800 | £63 | £90 | £1,080 |
| Hannah and Rob, two children, Bristol | £2,600 | £91 | £130 | £1,560 |
| Margaret, 63, recently retired, Norfolk | £3,600 (incl. two cars) | £126 | £180 | £2,160 |
Illustrative calculation: monthly spending × inflation rate. Assumes the same basket of spending a year later and that the household's costs rise in line with headline CPI.
Inflation rarely arrives as one big bill. It turns up as £5 here and £12 there – until the direct debits no longer fit inside the month.
Look at the table again. Hannah and Rob's extra £130 a month is not a crisis on its own. What makes it painful is that it lands in the same months as winter energy, Christmas and, for many, a remortgage. That is why the households that cope best are not the ones that cut hardest – they are the ones with a system that sees every bill coming.
When inflation climbs towards 5%, the safest budget is one where every bill has a date, an amount and a buffer – so a £130-a-month rise is planned for, not discovered on the bank statement.
The Matriarch's Money Reset — Step III: Own the System
- Build a 12-month bills calendar so January energy, insurance renewals and annual subscriptions are visible now
- Set up a simple buffer for the costs that rise fastest – fuel, energy and food
- Agree household money roles and boundaries so price rises are discussed before they become arguments
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See what is inside →Inside the three households
Sophie: the renter
Sophie's biggest exposure is energy and food. At 5%, her everyday costs rise by £90 a month. If her pay rise next spring is smaller than that, she will feel it from January, when the new energy cap applies and the winter bills are highest.
Hannah and Rob: the family
Two school runs and a second-hand diesel mean fuel is their pain point. A 55-litre tank of diesel at 192.5p is about £106. They are on a fixed mortgage until 2028, so the rate rise does not hit them directly yet – but £130 more a month in everyday costs takes most of what they had been putting into savings.
Margaret: the new retiree
Margaret runs two cars and a larger, older house. Her £180-a-month gap at 5% is the biggest in pounds, and her pension rises only once a year, in April. She has the most to gain from cutting one car and timing her bills.
Five things to set up before 18 November
- Write down your own top five rising costs. Compare this month's statement with the same month last year. Your inflation rate may be well above or below 3.5%.
- Take a meter reading on the day the January cap is announced. It keeps your bills accurate around the price change. Our January 2027 price cap forecast by home size shows what to expect.
- Price your fuel year. Our petrol prices November 2026 year-at-the-pump calculation breaks it down by household.
- Check your mortgage and savings. If your fix ends in 2027, see our Bank of England 4% rate rise: three households; if you have savings, our savings rates after the rise shows what £10,000 can earn.
- Ask for help early. If bills are already hard to cover, MoneyHelper and Citizens Advice offer free, impartial guidance, and your energy supplier must discuss affordable payment plans with you.
Quick answers
When is the next UK inflation figure released?
The ONS publishes October 2026 consumer price inflation on Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 7am.
What was UK inflation in September 2026?
CPI was 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% in August. CPIH, which includes owner occupiers' housing costs, was 3.6%.
Will inflation go up in 2027?
The Bank of England's November 2026 forecast expects CPI to rise to around 4.5% in the first quarter of 2027 and around 5% in the second quarter, before falling back as energy effects fade. Forecasts can change.
Sources
- ONS: Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026
- GOV.UK: Consumer price inflation, UK: October 2026 – release announcement (18 November 2026, 7am)
- Bank of England: Bank Rate increased to 4% – November 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
- Ofgem: Energy price cap will rise by 4% from October 2026
- Scanalytics: UK CPI forecast for October 2026 (draft nowcast)
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Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.