US employers are budgeting an average salary increase of about 3.4% for 2027, according to WTW's survey of 1,650 US organisations, while consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026. The latest Employment Cost Index, released on 30 October 2026, shows wages and salaries up 3.1% over the year but down 0.6% after inflation. On a $60,000 salary, an average 3.4% raise is $2,040; simply keeping pace with 3.7% inflation would take $2,220. Here is your gap, and nine scripts to ask for more in this year's review.
What the new data says about your pay
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Cost Index (ECI) is the government's broadest measure of what employers pay. The third-quarter 2026 release, published on Friday 30 October, showed total compensation for civilian workers up 3.4% over the 12 months to September, with wages and salaries up 3.1% and benefit costs up 3.9%. Adjusted for inflation, wages and salaries fell 0.6% for both civilian and private-industry workers.
The reason is prices. The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, up from 3.4% in August. Energy prices were up 20.4% over the year and gasoline 34.2%, while food rose 2.5% and shelter 3.2%. In other words, many workers got a raise that was smaller than the rise in their costs. We looked at the price side in what September's prices cost your household.
What employers are planning for 2027
Most companies set next year's pay budgets in the autumn, which is why November and December are when raise conversations matter most. Two big surveys point to the same "about 3.5%" world:
- WTW (July 2026, 1,650 US organisations): average salary increase budgets of 3.4% for 2027, after 3.5% actually paid in 2026. WTW's Lori Wisper said employers "will continue to experience salary increases in the 'land of 3%' for the foreseeable future".
- Mercer (August 2026, 1,001 organisations): projected merit increases of 3.2% and total increases, including promotions and other adjustments, of 3.5% for 2027.
WTW also found employers are moving away from broad increases toward "more precise, performance-driven pay strategies". That matters for you: if the budget is an average, some people get 5% and some get 2%. The conversation you have now helps decide which group you are in.
Your raise gap, calculated
We compared an average 3.4% raise with a raise that simply matches the latest 3.7% inflation figure. The last column shows what a 3.4% raise is worth in today's prices if inflation stays at 3.7% (an illustrative assumption; the next CPI release is due on 10 November).
| Salary | 3.4% raise | Raise to match 3.7% | Gap per year | Real change after 3.7% inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45,000 | $1,530 | $1,665 | $135 | −$130 |
| $60,000 | $2,040 | $2,220 | $180 | −$174 |
| $75,000 | $2,550 | $2,775 | $225 | −$217 |
| $100,000 | $3,400 | $3,700 | $300 | −$289 |
Our calculation, before tax. The gap looks small, but it is the gap on an average raise. At 3.1%, the actual ECI wage growth of the past year, the shortfall on $60,000 is $360.
An average raise this year is a small pay cut in disguise. The difference between 3.4% and 5% is usually one prepared conversation.
Before you ask, untangle the money story
Many women know their numbers and still freeze when it is time to ask. The Matriarch's Money Brain Workbook helps you work on the part no salary survey covers:
- Identify the money stories ("I should be grateful", "asking is greedy") that make you accept the first number.
- Calm the money anxiety that shows up before difficult conversations, with guided exercises you can repeat before your review.
- Connect your pay to your real values and goals, so you know exactly what you are asking for and why.
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9 scripts to ask for a raise in 2027
Adapt the words to your workplace and keep the tone factual. Bring a short written list of your results to every conversation.
1. Booking the conversation early
"I know budgets for next year are being set now. Could we schedule 30 minutes before they're finalised to talk about my compensation for 2027?"
2. Opening with results, not need
"This year I [delivered X], which [saved / earned / improved Y]. I'd like to talk about how my pay reflects that."
3. Naming a number
"Based on my results and market data for this role, I'm asking for an increase to $[amount], which is [X]%." Saying the number first anchors the conversation.
4. Using the cost-of-living data, carefully
"Prices rose 3.7% over the past year, so a standard raise would leave me behind in real terms. Beyond that, I'd like my raise to reflect the extra responsibility I've taken on." Lead with value; use inflation as context, not as the whole case.
5. When they say "the budget is 3%"
"I understand the overall budget. Budgets are averages, so how are increases above the average decided, and what would put me in that group?"
6. Asking for the gap in another form
"If the base salary can't move further now, could we look at a one-off bonus, an extra week of leave, training funding or flexible hours to close the gap?"
7. Asking about promotion
"I'm already doing parts of the [next-level] role. What would I need to show over the next six months to be promoted, and can we write those goals down?"
8. When the answer is no
"Thank you for being clear. Can we agree a date to revisit this, say in [three] months, and what specifically would change the answer?"
9. Following up in writing
"Thanks for today. To confirm, we agreed [X], and we'll review again on [date]. Please let me know if I've missed anything."
Make the raise count at home
Whatever the outcome, decide where the new money goes before the first bigger paycheck arrives, otherwise it tends to disappear into everyday spending. If job security is on your mind, our breakdown of what the October jobs report means for you and our guide to weighing a buyout show how to read the job market right now. For the long view on why pay conversations matter for women, see net worth by age, from the new Fed data.
Frequently asked questions
What is the average raise for 2027?
Surveys point to about 3.4%–3.5%. WTW reports average US salary increase budgets of 3.4% for 2027, and Mercer projects 3.2% for merit increases and 3.5% in total including promotions and other adjustments.
Is a 3% raise good in 2026?
It is below recent inflation. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the 12 months to September 2026, so a 3% raise means your pay buys slightly less than a year ago, unless prices slow.
How much of a raise should I ask for?
Many people start from the market rate for their role plus their results this year. A raise that at least matches inflation (3.7% in the latest data) keeps your spending power level; asking above that is reasonable when you can show added value or new responsibilities.
Sources
Nervous before a pay conversation? Try the free 7-Day Money Anxiety Reset journal.
Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.