The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reviews the Official Cash Rate on Wednesday 28 October 2026. The OCR is 2.75% after a 0.25% hike on 2 September, and most forecasters expect a pause in October and a hike to 3.00% on 9 December. With inflation at 4.1%, the useful question is less "what happens on Wednesday" and more "when should I refix?" Here's a calendar to plan around.
Why the RBNZ turned to hikes
Fuel is doing most of the damage: inflation was 4.1% in the June quarter, but only 2.9% without fuel. The RBNZ raised the OCR in September to stop higher energy costs feeding into wages and other prices. October is a review without a full Monetary Policy Statement, which is why many economists expect the Bank to wait for December, when it has fresh forecasts.
Your refix calendar
28 October — OCR review
Pause expected. Watch the wording: if the Bank sounds worried about inflation, banks may raise fixed rates afterwards even without an OCR move. The Committee did hold at 2.75%, by a 4–3 vote, and we ran the refix numbers in OCR held at 2.75%: fix or float?
Late October to mid-November — the data that decides December
The September-quarter inflation figures and the early-November jobs report are what the RBNZ will weigh. A high inflation number tends to push 1–2 year fixed rates up quickly.
Mid-November — your window if you refix before Christmas
Many banks let you lock in a rate weeks ahead of your refix date. If your fixed term ends in December or January, ask now.
9 December — Monetary Policy Statement
Hike to 3.00% expected by several forecasters. Floating rates usually follow within days.
What 0.25% costs on your mortgage
| Loan (30 years) | At 5.00% | At 5.25% | Extra / month |
|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $2,684 | $2,761 | +$77 |
| $750,000 | $4,026 | $4,142 | +$116 |
Our calculations, standard monthly amortisation. Your bank's fixed rates, not the OCR itself, decide what you pay.
Nobody can time rates perfectly. Splitting your loan across two or three terms means you never have to.
What to do this week
- Write down your refix date. If it's coming up soon, ask your bank about locking in a rate now.
- Consider splitting your loan across terms (for example 1 and 2 years), so not all of it reprices at once.
- Ask for a better rate. Banks often offer cash contributions or sharper rates to keep you; mention competitor rates.
- Find the extra $77–$116 now, while you have time. Fuel is the fastest-growing cost; our fuel-saving guide helps, and our breakdown of what three NZ households pay for power as low-user plans end covers the other bill on the move.
Planning for rate changes is easier when your whole money system is set up. Step III: Own the System (digital workbook) walks you through a bills calendar and buffers. If rate news makes you anxious, the free 7-Day Money Anxiety Reset journal is a calm first step.
Quick questions
When is the next OCR announcement? Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 2pm NZT. The next one after that is 9 December, with a full Monetary Policy Statement.
Will the OCR go up in October 2026? Most forecasters expect a pause at 2.75% in October and a 0.25% hike in December, but this depends on inflation data.
Should I fix or float? When rates are expected to rise, many borrowers fix part of their loan and keep some flexibility. A mortgage adviser can compare options for free.
Sources
- OrbitRemit, RBNZ OCR September 2026
- FocusEconomics, New Zealand central bank meeting, 2 September 2026
- ANZ, RBNZ MPS Review, September 2026 (PDF)
- Trading Economics, New Zealand Q2 inflation rate highest since 2023
- Westpac IQ, NZ CPI preview, September quarter 2026
- Our own repayment calculations
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