OCR Held at 2.75%: Fix or Float? We Ran NZ Mortgage Numbers

Today's decision surprised markets. Most economists expected a rise to 3.00%. Instead, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 4–3 to hold, with Governor Anna Breman among the four who wanted to wait, according to NZ Adviser's report on the 28 October 2026 decision. The three dissenters wanted a 25-basis-point hike now. The Committee's own words, as quoted in that report: tighter monetary policy "is likely to be required but remains conditional on the economic outlook."

So a hold today is not the all-clear. It is a six-week pause before the next decision on 9 December 2026, which comes with a full Monetary Policy Statement (dates confirmed on the Reserve Bank's official OCR calendar). If your fixed term rolls off before Christmas, this article is for you. We took the lowest advertised rates published this morning and ran them through repayment maths for three loan sizes. Here is what came out.

OCR 2.75% held: the three numbers that matter for your mortgage

That middle number is the one people underestimate. According to NZ Adviser's 14 October 2026 report on NZIER's analysis, about 64% of New Zealand mortgages reprice within a year. The same report notes that banks passed September's OCR rise (to 2.75%) in full to floating rates. Nearly two in three households will make a fix-or-float decision in the next 12 months, and most will make it with one eye on the news and one on the banking app.

Inflation is the reason the Reserve Bank is still leaning towards hikes. Stats NZ reported CPI up 3.7% in the year to the September 2026 quarter, down from 4.1% in June. That is still above the 1–3% target band. Underneath it, Westpac's same-day analysis of the Stats NZ release notes that council rates are up 6.2% on a year earlier and electricity up 9.3%. Rents were flat, and petrol fell 6.5% over the quarter. In NZ Adviser's summary of the statement, the Reserve Bank expects headline inflation to rise to 4.4% in the December quarter, mainly because of oil prices.

Today's best advertised NZ mortgage rates, side by side

Here is the starting point for every calculation below. Specials usually need at least 20% equity, and rates move almost daily, so treat this as a snapshot, not a quote.

Fixed rates: lowest advertised by term, Opes Partners rate table, updated 28 October 2026. Floating: bank-by-bank advertised rates, Squirrel rate table, checked 28 October 2026.

Look at the shape of that table. The curve is upward sloping: the longer you fix, the more you pay. That is the market pricing in OCR hikes. Fixing longer is like buying insurance, and right now the premium is about 0.44 percentage points a year for going from one year to two.

What each option costs: monthly repayments on $400k, $600k and $800k

We calculated standard principal-and-interest repayments over a 25-year remaining term for three loan sizes. The figures are rounded to the nearest dollar and come from the standard amortisation formula. They are the numbers your bank's calculator should roughly match.

Monthly principal-and-interest repayments, 25-year term. Our calculation, 28 October 2026. Fortnightly equivalents for $600,000: 1-year $1,611, 2-year $1,682, floating $1,834.

Here is the same gap drawn as bars. Each bar is the monthly repayment on a $600,000 loan.

The first finding is blunt. Floating is the most expensive way to wait. On $600,000, you pay $483 a month more than the cheapest 1-year fix. Over a year that is close to $5,800 for the flexibility of being able to repay or switch without break fees. That flexibility matters if you are about to sell, expect a lump sum, or are mid-separation. For everyone else it is an expensive comfort blanket.

Fix for one year or two? The break-even rate we found

This is the question everyone is really asking. If you fix for one year at 4.95%, you will refix in late 2027 at whatever the market offers then. If you fix for two years at 5.39%, you lock in now. Which costs less over 24 months?

We modelled a $600,000 loan month by month over 24 months, counting only interest (the true cost), and solved for the 1-year rate in late 2027 at which both paths cost exactly the same.

So the real question is not "will rates rise?" Everyone, including the Reserve Bank, thinks they probably will. The real question is "will 1-year fixed rates rise by more than about 0.9 percentage points in 12 months?" That is a much more specific bet, and it is the one you are actually making.

For context: the RBNZ statement, as summarised by NZ Adviser, said wholesale rates have already risen on expectations of a higher OCR, but weak credit demand and growing deposits have limited the pass-through, and some fixed rates for households have actually fallen. Banks are competing hard for borrowers. That cuts both ways. It is why specials are this sharp today, and why nobody can promise they stay that way.

Our honest read of the numbers: if your budget can absorb a jump of $200–$300 a month on a $600,000 loan in a year's time, the shorter fix has a reasonable chance of costing less. If a jump like that would break your budget, the extra $155 a month for the 2-year fix is buying real certainty, and certainty has a value no spreadsheet captures. Many borrowers split the difference by splitting the loan across two terms. A registered mortgage adviser can model your exact numbers. This article cannot tell you which to choose.

If you want to see the effect of each option on your whole month, not just the mortgage line, The Matriarch Money Dashboard is a Google Sheets and Excel budget where you can enter a new repayment and see straight away what it does to everything else. If the OCR headlines are mainly making you anxious, start with the free 7-Day Money Anxiety Reset journal. It takes about ten minutes a day.

If the OCR rises in December: what floating borrowers pay

The Committee was explicit that information over the next six weeks could move the decision "in either direction". If it hikes on 9 December and banks pass it on in full, as they did in September, here is the extra monthly cost on a floating loan starting from 6.29%:

Notice how small a single hike is next to the gap between floating and fixing, which is $483 a month on $600,000. If you are floating "until the dust settles", you are already paying far more than the next hike would cost you.

Falling house prices change the fix-or-float maths too

One part of the picture rarely makes it into the rate stories. House prices are still drifting down. The REINZ House Price Index fell 0.5% in September 2026, its fourth monthly fall in a row, and was down 1.5% on a year earlier (reported by NZ Adviser, 21 October 2026). The RBNZ statement itself notes falling prices are weighing on household sentiment.

Why it matters to you: the best specials in the table need 20% equity. If you bought near the peak with a small deposit, your equity may have slipped below that line without you noticing. Then you will be offered the standard rate or a low-equity margin, not the headline special. That can easily wipe out the half-point you thought you were choosing between. Before your refix date, check your bank's current valuation and your loan-to-value ratio. It is a five-minute question to your lender, and its answer decides which column of the table you are really in.

Your refix checklist before 9 December 2026

If the numbers already feel tight, talk to someone early. The government-funded Sorted has free mortgage and budgeting tools, and free financial mentoring is available through MoneyTalks. Banks have hardship processes, and that conversation goes better before a missed payment than after one.

Frequently asked questions

Did the OCR go up on 28 October 2026?
No. The Reserve Bank held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% by a 4–3 vote. The three dissenting members wanted 3.00%.

When is the next OCR decision?
Wednesday 9 December 2026, with a full Monetary Policy Statement.

Will mortgage rates go up after the OCR hold?
Fixed rates follow wholesale rates more than the OCR itself. Wholesale rates have risen on hike expectations, but competition between banks has kept some specials lower. Floating rates generally move when the OCR moves.

Is it better to fix for 1 or 2 years in NZ right now?
On today's best specials, a 1-year fix costs less unless 1-year rates rise above about 5.85% by late 2027. Your own budget's ability to absorb a higher repayment should decide it, ideally with a mortgage adviser.

Keep reading

For the background to today's decision, read our preview of the October OCR decision and what it signalled. Plan the next three months with the NZ money calendar: 15 dates between now and January. See what three homes now pay as low-user power plans end, work through a 4-week plan for petrol, power and rates, and check whether KiwiSaver at 3.5% or 3% makes sense for you. To compare pay rises with inflation across five countries, see today's minimum wage 2027 showdown.

Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.