The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its next decision at 2:30pm AEDT on Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday 3 November 2026. The cash rate is 4.60% after four hikes since February, the highest since 2011. Banks are split: HSBC and ANZ expect another rise, CBA expects a hold, and markets lean towards a hike. If it comes, a typical $600,000 loan goes up by about $98 a month. Here's your number, and how to find it before the race starts.
Update, 29 October: after September's 4.3% inflation figure all four big banks now forecast a hike, and we've run the new numbers in RBA Rate Hike to 4.85% Expected: Your Cup Day Repayment.
THE CASH RATE IN 2026
The 4.85% bar is a scenario, not a forecast.
Why the RBA might hike again
Annual inflation was 4.0% in August, according to the ABS, well above the RBA's 2–3% target. Fuel prices jumped sharply after higher world oil prices and the end of the remaining federal fuel excise relief. The RBA has said it will do what is needed to bring inflation back to target. Against that, households are under strain: a November hike would mean the average new mortgage costs about $550 a month more than at the start of 2026, per figures reported by ACM newspapers. The September inflation figure lands on 28 October, five days earlier; here's what the 28 October CPI means for your household budget.
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Your repayment, by loan size
| Loan (30 years, P&I) | At 6.25% | At 6.50% (after a hike) | Extra / month |
|---|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | $2,463 | $2,528 | +$65 |
| $600,000 | $3,694 | $3,792 | +$98 |
| $750,000 | $4,618 | $4,741 | +$123 |
| $1,000,000 | $6,157 | $6,321 | +$164 |
Our calculations, standard monthly amortisation, assuming your lender passes on the full 0.25%. Your rate and remaining term will change the exact figure. Rule of thumb: about $16 a month per $100,000 owed.
Find the $100 before the RBA does. It's much easier on 2 November than on 2 December.
A four-step plan before Cup Day
- Look up your actual rate and balance in your banking app. Use the rule of thumb above to estimate your increase.
- Ask your lender for a better rate. Existing customers often pay more than new ones. A short call asking for a rate review, mentioning a competitor's advertised rate, is one of the highest-value calls you can make this year.
- Check your offset or redraw. Money sitting in an offset account reduces the interest you pay at your full mortgage rate.
- Find the extra in your budget now. Fuel is the line that has grown most, so start there; our fuel-saving guide has ideas. Groceries are next; see how much to spend on groceries.
If repayments are already hard, call your lender before you miss one and ask about hardship options. The free National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007) can help too. If your job is also at risk, our redundancy scripts for Australia give you the exact words for HR, payroll and your lender. If falling home values are also on your mind, see what the 5.2% house price fall means for three households.
Rate rises hurt most when bills feel random. Step III: Own the System (digital workbook) helps you build a bills calendar and buffer so each change is planned for, not a shock.
Quick questions
When is the RBA's November 2026 decision? Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 2:30pm AEDT, Melbourne Cup Day.
Will the RBA raise rates on Melbourne Cup Day? Economists are split. Several major banks expect a 0.25% hike to 4.85%, while others expect a hold.
How much will my repayment go up? Roughly $16 a month per $100,000 of mortgage for each 0.25% rise on a 30-year loan.
Sources
- ABS, CPI rose 4.0% in the year to August 2026
- Betashares, RBA Melbourne Cup hike still a warm favourite
- The New Daily, Banks split on next RBA meeting as households rattled by hikes (7 Oct 2026)
- Newcastle Herald (ACM), More pain brews for borrowers as rates hit 15-year high
- Our own repayment calculations
PLAN FOR THE NEXT RISE
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See your repayments and bills in the Money Dashboard →
Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.