The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday 3 November 2026 (Melbourne Cup Day), and all four big banks now expect it to lift the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 4.60% to 4.85%. If your lender passes it on in full, a $600,000 variable loan with 25 years left costs about $94 more a month – roughly $1,130 a year – on top of the four rises already this year.
Update, 3 November 2026: the RBA has now raised the cash rate to 4.85%. For the decision, your new repayment and what to do next, read RBA Hikes to 4.85%: Your Repayment and What to Do by 8 December.
The trigger was the inflation figure released on 28 October: headline CPI jumped to 4.3% in the year to September, and the RBA's preferred trimmed-mean measure rose 1.0% in the quarter against the RBA's own 0.8% forecast. Below, we have done the maths for different loan sizes, mapped what happens from decision day to your next repayment, and listed the moves that actually change your number. (This is an update to our pre-CPI RBA Melbourne Cup rate decision guide, now that the September figure and the banks' new forecasts are in.)
*Our calculation: variable rate rising from 6.49% to 6.74%, 25 years remaining, principal and interest. Your rate and loan term will differ.
Why a Melbourne Cup rate hike is now the base case
Before the CPI release, markets put the odds of a November rise at around 60%. On the day, pricing jumped to roughly 80–90%, according to reporting by AAP and Savings.com.au. NAB and CBA both switched from forecasting a hold to forecasting a hike, joining Westpac and ANZ. CBA's Belinda Allen said the September quarter print "affirmed our view that a rate hike is on the cards next week".
The detail matters for households. Fuel prices rose 9.4% in September and were the main driver of the headline jump, but market services inflation – things like insurance, meals out and personal services – also climbed above 4% for the first time since late 2025. That is why economists expect the RBA to act even though unemployment has edged up this year.
If you want the full breakdown of what September's prices cost a typical home, our earlier piece Australia Inflation 4.3%: What September’s CPI Costs You runs three household budgets through the numbers.
Your repayment after a 0.25% rise, by loan size
Canstar estimated that after September's hike the average owner-occupier variable rate would sit around 6.49% once banks passed it on. We used that as the starting point and added 0.25 percentage points. All figures assume principal-and-interest repayments over 25 remaining years.
| Loan | Now (6.49%) | After (6.74%) | Extra a month | Extra a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $400,000 | $2,698 | $2,761 | +$63 | +$753 |
| $500,000 | $3,373 | $3,451 | +$78 | +$942 |
| $600,000 | $4,047 | $4,142 | +$94 | +$1,130 |
| $700,000 | $4,722 | $4,832 | +$110 | +$1,319 |
| $800,000 | $5,397 | $5,522 | +$126 | +$1,507 |
| $1,000,000 | $6,746 | $6,903 | +$157 | +$1,884 |
Our calculations, rounded to the nearest dollar. Illustrative only – check your own rate in your banking app.
Monthly increase from a single 0.25 percentage point rise.
Now zoom out. If this is the fifth rise of 2026 (1.25 percentage points in total), a $600,000 loan that started the year at about 5.49% would be paying roughly $461 more a month than in January – about $5,530 a year. Canstar's own projection for five hikes on a $600,000 loan was a similar +$456 a month.
One more 0.25% rise is $94 a month on a $600,000 loan. Five rises in one year is closer to $461 – the price of a weekly grocery shop for many families.
That is the moment most people feel it: not in the headline, but when the new direct debit comes out and the account that used to have a little breathing room on the Thursday before payday suddenly doesn't.
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A rate rise is a fixed cost you can't negotiate this month – but you can find the $94 (or $461) somewhere else, fast, without guessing.
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See what's inside →From decision day to your bank account: the timeline
| When | What happens | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, 2.30pm AEDT | RBA announces its decision and publishes its Statement on Monetary Policy with updated forecasts | Note the new cash rate and any hints about February; don't panic-refinance on the day |
| 3–6 Nov | Big banks usually announce whether they pass it on, and from what date | Check your lender's newsroom or email |
| About 1–2 weeks later | New variable rate starts | Look for the rate in your app |
| Your next repayment cycle | Lender recalculates the minimum repayment and writes to you | Update your budget and direct debits |
Timing of bank pass-through varies by lender – it is not set by the RBA.
Westpac expects no further hikes this year but says the risk of another one, most likely in February, has increased. CBA expects a hold in December. That means there is a real chance the November rise is not the last – which is a reason to build some buffer now rather than stretch to cover it.
Does it affect you? A quick check
| Your situation | Effect of a November hike |
|---|---|
| Variable-rate mortgage | Repayment likely rises within weeks if your lender passes it on |
| Fixed-rate mortgage | No change until your fixed term ends – then you roll onto today's higher rates |
| Fixed term ending in the next 6–12 months | Start comparing now; fixed rates were already lifted after September |
| Renting | No direct change, but landlords facing higher repayments may push for rises at renewal |
| Savings in a high-interest account | Rates may edge up – check whether your bank passes the rise to savers too |
| Credit card or BNPL debt | Most card rates are already high and don't track the cash rate closely |
Renters: if a rent increase notice arrives, our 6 scripts before you accept a rent increase walk through exactly what to say.
Five moves that actually change your number
- Call your lender and ask for a rate review. Lenders compete hard for existing customers; Canstar's comparisons regularly show lenders offering variable rates well below the average. A 0.25% discount fully cancels a 0.25% hike.
- Check your offset and redraw. Every dollar in an offset reduces interest at your mortgage rate – after November, around 6.7% for many borrowers.
- Ask what happens if you keep paying the old amount. If you already pay above the minimum, you may be able to absorb the rise without changing anything.
- Talk to your lender early if it will be tight. Lenders have hardship obligations; calling before you miss a payment gives you more options.
- Get free, independent help. The National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007) and Moneysmart's mortgage calculator are free and not selling you anything.
If you are also weighing what falling prices mean for your home's value, see House Prices Falling Australia 2026: What a 5.2% Drop Means.
Frequently asked questions
Will the RBA raise rates on Melbourne Cup Day 2026?
It is not confirmed until 2.30pm AEDT on 3 November, but after the 4.3% CPI figure all four big banks forecast a 0.25 percentage point rise to 4.85%, and market pricing moved to about 80–90%.
How much will my mortgage go up if rates rise 0.25%?
On our maths, about $15.70 a month per $100,000 borrowed at today's typical variable rates over 25 years – so roughly $94 a month on $600,000 and $157 on $1 million.
When will my repayment change after the RBA decision?
Banks usually announce within a few days and the new rate typically applies one to two weeks later; your lender will tell you the new minimum repayment in writing.
If the rate news is making you anxious, you are not alone – talking it through with someone you trust, or a free financial counsellor, can make the next step feel much smaller.
Sources
- AAP – November rate hike a lock after 'ugly' inflation result
- Savings.com.au – Big four unite: RBA to lift cash rate to 4.85% (28 Oct 2026)
- CommBank Newsroom – RBA raises official cash rate to 4.60% (30 Sept 2026)
- Canstar – Back to 2011: how to manage another hike (28 Sept 2026)
- ABC News – RBA deputy warns inflation outlook 'materially worse' (21 Oct 2026)
- Moneysmart (ASIC) – Mortgage calculator
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Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.