Around 2.3 million UK households will see their fixed-rate mortgage deal end in 2027, according to UK Finance figures reported on 2 November 2026, nearly half a million more than this year. Many are five-year fixes taken in early 2022, when the average five-year rate was about 3.37%; today the average five-year fix is above 6%. On our illustrative numbers, that turns a £741 monthly payment into about £925, and a £1,234 payment into about £1,542. Here is how to find your own figure before the Bank of England meets on Thursday 5 November.
What happened, and why 2027 is the crunch year
Mortgage deals run in cohorts. UK Finance's own forecast, published in December 2025, expected about 1.8 million fixed-rate deals to expire in 2026. The figure now being reported for 2027 is about 2.3 million. The reason is simple: early 2022 was the last moment of cheap fixed rates. Bank Rate was around 1%, and Moneyfacts data quoted by The Independent puts the average two-year fix at 3.25% and the average five-year fix at 3.37%. Everyone who locked in for five years then reaches the end of that deal in 2027.
Meanwhile, rates have moved the other way. Bank Rate is 3.75%, unchanged since December 2025, and analysts widely expect the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to raise it to 4% on 5 November, the first rise in more than three years. Fixed mortgage rates are priced from swap rates and gilt yields, which have already climbed: the average five-year fix passed 6% about a month ago, according to The Independent's report. Inflation is also higher: the ONS put CPI at 3.5% in September 2026, up from 3.1% in August, driven largely by motor fuel prices.
The headline number: £303 a month on £200,000
On a like-for-like £200,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years, our calculation gives about £987 a month at 3.37% and about £1,289 a month at 6%, a difference of roughly £302 a month or more than £3,600 a year (The Independent's own figures are £986 and £1,289). That is the scary version, because it ignores the fact that you have paid down five years of the loan. The three households below are more realistic.
Three households, one remortgage (illustrative examples)
Illustrative examples, not real people. Each took a five-year fix in early 2022 at 3.37% on a repayment mortgage, and remortgages in 2027 for the remaining term. We show the new payment at 5.75%, 6.00% and 6.25%, because the rate you are offered depends on your loan-to-value, fees and lender.
| Anna | Priya & Tom | Margaret | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borrowed in 2022 | £150,000 / 25 yrs | £250,000 / 25 yrs | £100,000 / 30 yrs |
| Payment at 3.37% | £741 | £1,234 | £442 |
| Balance left in 2027 | £129,167 | £215,279 | £89,495 |
| New payment at 5.75% | £907 | £1,511 | £563 |
| New payment at 6.00% | £925 | £1,542 | £577 |
| New payment at 6.25% | £944 | £1,574 | £590 |
| Extra at 6%, per month / per year | +£185 / £2,219 | +£308 / £3,698 | +£135 / £1,618 |
Anna, a single mum, has to find about £185 a month, roughly the cost of a weekly food shop. Priya and Tom need about £308 a month, more than £3,600 over the year. Margaret, in her late fifties with a smaller loan, faces about £135 a month more just as she was planning to overpay before retirement.
The rise is not one bill. It is £185 or £308 that has to come from somewhere else, every single month, for five years.
Find the money before the letter arrives
Knowing your new payment is step one; knowing where the extra £150–£300 comes from is step two. The Matriarch Money Dashboard is a budget spreadsheet that lets you:
- Enter your current and expected mortgage payment and see instantly what the gap does to the rest of your monthly budget.
- Track every category in one place, so you can see which two or three can realistically flex by £185 or £308.
- Watch a savings buffer build month by month in the months before your fixed deal ends.
A digital Google Sheets & Excel file, nothing is shipped. Download straight after purchase and use it on your computer, tablet or phone. One-time purchase, no shipping fees.
Does the 5 November decision change your number?
If you are already on a fixed rate that runs into 2027, a Bank Rate change on Thursday does not change your payment today. It matters through the price of your next deal. Markets have priced in several 0.25-point rises over the next 12 months, while some City economists think two rises by July 2027 is more likely. Barclays analysts, quoted by The Independent, expect a 7–2 vote to raise rates on Thursday. We explained what a 4% Bank Rate means for trackers, variable rates and savers in Bank of England 5 November 2026: does a 4% rate hit you?
A 6-month remortgage checklist
- Find your end date. Check your mortgage offer or online account for the exact date your fixed rate ends and the early repayment charge (ERC) that applies until then.
- Ask about locking in early. Many lenders let you secure a new deal some months before your current one ends. Ask your lender or a broker how far ahead they allow and whether you can switch if rates fall before completion.
- Compare a product transfer with a full remortgage. Staying with your lender is often simpler; moving can be cheaper. Compare the total cost including arrangement fees, and use the APRC to compare like with like, as MoneyHelper recommends.
- Do not drift onto the SVR. When a deal ends you usually move to the lender's standard variable rate, which is typically higher than deals available elsewhere.
- Build a buffer now. If your payment is likely to rise by about £185 a month, setting that amount aside from today both tests whether your budget can take it and gives you a cushion.
- Get help early if it will not fit. Lenders must treat struggling borrowers fairly, and options can include a temporary term extension or a switch to interest-only. Free, impartial help is available from MoneyHelper and Citizens Advice.
The squeeze will not arrive alone. The OBR forecasts real household disposable income to fall by 0.6% next year, and we looked at what the wider fall in living standards means per month in the £1,050 income fall, per month. If you are building a cash buffer, check how the new rules affect you in savings tax rise 2027, and see the full Budget picture in Budget 2026: what it means for you.
Frequently asked questions
How many mortgages are ending in 2027?
About 2.3 million UK households are due to come off fixed-rate deals in 2027, according to UK Finance figures reported on 2 November 2026. UK Finance had forecast about 1.8 million expiring in 2026.
How much will my mortgage go up when my fix ends?
It depends on your remaining balance, term and new rate. As an illustration, a £150,000 loan taken over 25 years at 3.37% in 2022 costs about £741 a month; remortgaging the remaining £129,167 at 6% over 20 years costs about £925, around £185 a month more.
Should I lock in a mortgage rate now?
Many lenders let you secure a deal ahead of your end date, which can protect you if rates rise further. Whether it suits you depends on fees, ERCs and your plans, so compare offers or speak to a regulated mortgage adviser before deciding.
Sources
- UK Finance – Mortgage market forecast 2026–2027, 15 Dec 2025
- ONS – Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026 (released 21 Oct 2026)
- MoneyHelper – Remortgaging to get the best deal
- The Independent (via Yahoo Finance UK) – Millions in UK set for higher mortgage costs next year, 2 Nov 2026 (Moneyfacts rate data)
- Report of The Guardian's coverage of UK Finance figures, 2 Nov 2026
If mortgage news keeps you up at night, the free 7-Day Money Anxiety Reset journal is a gentle first step.
Educational content only. Not personalised financial advice.